Wisconsin could see thousands of lost jobs as defense contractors face declining military equipment orders

Wisconsin’s defense industry stands at a crossroads as foreign governments rethink their reliance on American-made military equipment.

Companies such as Oshkosh Defense and Fincantieri Marinette Marine are facing uncertainty because Donald Trump’s combative approach to allies has sown doubts about long-term cooperation. That matters to thousands of Wisconsin workers who depend on defense contracts for stable, well-paying jobs.

It also matters to the many small businesses across the state that supply parts, materials and services. If allies cut purchases of U.S. weaponry, Wisconsin could lose billions in potential revenue and see entire communities suffer.

OSHKOSH DEFENSE FACES UNCERTAIN ORDERS

Oshkosh Defense, part of Oshkosh Corporation, secured a 6.7 billion dollar contract in 2023 to build Joint Light Tactical Vehicles for the U.S. Army and partner nations through 2028. These rugged trucks have become a mainstay of modern militaries that value American reliability. Yet much of Oshkosh’s growth in recent years has come from foreign buyers in Europe and beyond.

Poland, Lithuania, and Belgium have all purchased vehicles designed in Oshkosh. Executives say these deals diversify the company’s revenue. If foreign leaders become wary of Trump’s foreign policy, new orders could shrink or vanish. That could erode Oshkosh’s future backlog, leaving production lines underemployed.

MARINETTE MARINE’S SHIPBUILDING AT RISK

Fincantieri Marinette Marine in Marinette builds some of the Navy’s most advanced warships. It won a 795 million dollar contract in 2020 to construct the lead Constellation-class frigate, with the possibility of 5 billion dollars more if the Navy orders 10 ships. That project already supports engineers, welders and fitters, many of whom spent years perfecting their craft.

The yard also has the potential to build vessels for foreign clients. However, political tensions may prompt allies to look elsewhere for warships, submarines, and patrol craft. If these buyers worry that Trump might impose trade barriers or revoke export licenses, they might choose European or Asian shipyards instead. That would cut Marinette out of lucrative deals and stunt local job growth.

STATEWIDE JOB IMPLICATIONS

An estimated 16,000 defense-related jobs in Wisconsin span factories, design offices, and supply depots. Oshkosh and Marinette Marine anchor those positions, but other sites in Milwaukee and smaller communities also produce equipment for the military. When major contracts slow, the entire workforce feels the effects.

A 25 percent drop in foreign JLTV orders could cost Oshkosh Defense 1,500 jobs or more. If Marinette Marine fails to secure new international shipbuilding deals, 3,000 positions might disappear. That includes direct layoffs, and the shockwaves would be felt by suppliers. From forging shops to software integrators, businesses across Wisconsin rely on timely orders.

RIPPLE EFFECTS IN LOCAL ECONOMIES

Job losses do not stop at factory gates. Restaurant owners say laid-off defense workers spend less on dining. Hardware stores sell fewer tools if machinists and mechanics lose overtime. City tax collections decline when families leave or see their pay cut. That can force municipal budget cuts, which hurt libraries, schools, and public safety.

Home values can also dip if large layoffs trigger departures. Real estate agents have noted that when a major local employer falters, neighborhoods lose some stability. New businesses become cautious about investing if they see uncertainty in once-thriving defense hubs.

DIPLOMATIC TENSIONS HAMPER EXPORTS

Allies that once rushed to buy American weapons may hesitate when the White House’s tone toward them is unpredictable. Trump has demanded that nations spend more on their own defense, but critics say his approach undercuts alliances. Foreign ministers worry about supply disruptions if Washington imposes tariffs or revokes permissions for certain technologies.

Poland and other European nations, for instance, want proven vehicles and ships that can integrate with NATO forces. If they sense too much drama in U.S. diplomacy, they might choose local suppliers or turn to alternatives in Europe or Asia. That hurts Wisconsin directly, since many of these same allies have purchased Oshkosh’s vehicles or considered teaming up with Marinette Marine.

WHY WISCONSIN RELIES ON DEFENSE CONTRACTS

Defense manufacturing stabilizes entire regions. Oshkosh Defense alone has supported families for generations, offering wages that outstrip many other factory jobs. Marinette Marine breathes life into a small city near the Upper Peninsula border. People with specialized skills, from steel-cutting to electronics assembly, know they can find steady work building military hardware.

These industries also spawn clusters of suppliers. Machine shops, metal treaters, and logistics providers see steady demand when contracts keep rolling in. That demand underwrites expansions, fosters new hiring, and boosts pay. In a state known for manufacturing, defense work has become a beacon of economic resilience.

POTENTIAL FALLOUT FOR SMALL BUSINESSES

Tool-and-die shops in Milwaukee provide critical parts for Oshkosh vehicles. High-tech firms in other Wisconsin counties also develop sensors for frigates. Trucking companies move giant hull segments from sub-vendors to final assembly lines. Without foreign sales, these businesses face lean months or prolonged slumps.

Losing 1,500 or 3,000 core jobs might erase many more indirect positions. Some experts say the true multiplier can be two or three times. That means each layoff at a defense plant can trigger another layoff in a related industry. Fewer paychecks in circulation lead to less spending on gas, clothing, and groceries.

STRATEGIC COSTS OF ISOLATION

Critics argue that Trump’s isolationist stance harms national security by fraying alliances that once smoothed the path for U.S. exports. NATO members count on American technology, but they expect reliability and consistent support. When they question Washington’s loyalty, they explore domestic or non-U.S. suppliers, making countries like Italy, France, or South Korea more competitive.

Wisconsin’s ability to influence broader defense policy hinges on strong foreign ties. Exports keep local plants humming and encourage the Pentagon to invest in advanced projects here. If that synergy breaks, the state’s manufacturers might lag behind rivals that maintain robust partnerships with global clients.

Industry leaders note that defense contracts often span decades. Buyers must be confident that future White Houses will honor deals. If they perceive too many risks, they might split orders among multiple suppliers, diluting Wisconsin’s share and slowing local growth.

MILWAUKEE’S SUPPLY CHAIN

Milwaukee stands out as a vital hub for parts makers tied to both vehicles and ships. Its factories handle everything from transmission assemblies to electrical systems. Many of these companies employ fewer than 100 people. A single canceled contract can push them to lay off half their workforce or close altogether.

Community advocates stress that Milwaukee’s economy still grapples with challenges from manufacturing declines in the past. Defense work has provided a crucial safety net. Now, uncertainty threatens to strip away that progress and sink some struggling neighborhoods back into joblessness.

IMPACT ON INNOVATION

When Oshkosh or Marinette Marine land big contracts, they often invest in research. That benefits local colleges and technical schools. Students can train on the latest manufacturing processes, and engineers can collaborate on design improvements. This synergy fosters innovation, fueling future competitiveness for the entire state.

If foreign deals vanish, these research initiatives might shrink. Universities could lose funding for specialized labs. Aspiring engineers might leave for states with a more stable outlook. That brain drain could further erode Wisconsin’s reputation as a national leader in advanced manufacturing.

GROWING ANXIETY AMONG WORKERS

Employees at the Oshkosh plant note that colleagues read every news article about potential foreign deals. They worry that political feuds could kill contracts overnight. Many recall past dips in production that forced temporary layoffs or cut their hours. Paychecks are on the line.

Marinette workers express similar concerns. Shipbuilding is a long process. Each vessel can mean steady employment for hundreds of tradespeople over several years. Without new deals, they face gaps in work schedules. That can trigger a loss of health benefits or retirement savings if layoffs last too long.

A FINAL WARNING FOR WISCONSIN?

Thousands of jobs and billions of dollars rest on whether foreign customers stick with American-made vehicles and ships. If they do, manufacturing towns across the state can remain strong. If not, the toll on working families will be severe.

Trump’s isolationist stance threatens a pillar of Wisconsin’s economy. There is no easy replacement for large-scale defense projects. Suppliers cannot afford to wait on the sidelines for the White House to rebuild strained relationships with longtime partners.

Officials, business owners, and workers all say the same thing: stability matters. Clear, constructive diplomacy can keep Wisconsin’s defense lines humming. Abrupt confrontation weakens that foundation and hands competitors a golden chance to win business. The president’s choices will either preserve or undermine decades of progress in Wisconsin built on international trust.