South Korea formalizes nuclear deterrent strategy with U.S. as North Korea aims to boost atomic arsenal

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North Korea has significantly intensified its rhetoric and actions in recent months related to its nuclear and missile programs, heightening tensions on the Korean Peninsula and prompting a firm response from the United States and South Korea.

North Korea’s summer announcement of a successful test of a multiwarhead missile represented a major development in its missile program. According to the North’s state media, the test involved the separation and guidance control of individual mobile warheads, ensuring the capability of Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs).

The separated warheads “were guided correctly to the three coordinate targets” and a decoy that separated from the missile was verified by radar. That technology is crucial for overwhelming missile defenses, particularly those of the United States.

However, South Korea’s military quickly dismissed North Korea’s claim as a cover-up for a failed launch. Joint Chiefs of Staff spokesperson Lee Sung Joon stated that the missile exploded in the initial stage of its flight, contradicting North Korea’s narrative of a successful test. The assessment was based on the detection of more smoke than usual and a possible engine fault causing combustion issues.

Despite the disagreement over the success of the test, experts acknowledge that North Korea’s pursuit of MIRV technology was significant. Ankit Panda, a senior analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted the presence of decoys in the test.

“The presence of decoys is significant. North Korea has made no secret of its intention to stress and overcome U.S. homeland missile defenses,” Panda said. “Decoys will assist in that endeavor and will likely be incorporated onto their single-warhead missiles as well.”

In response to North Korea’s escalating threats, the United States and South Korea have taken steps to bolster their defense capabilities. On the sidelines of a NATO summit in Washington, President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol authorized the signing of joint nuclear deterrence guidelines.

The guidelines represent the first of their kind between the two allies and aim to integrate U.S. nuclear weapons with South Korean conventional weapons in various contingencies. The establishment of the Nuclear Consultative Group last year was a crucial step in the new direction, enabling enhanced communication on nuclear operations and the development of integrated deterrence plans.

“The presidents underscored that the Guidelines document provides a solid foundation for enhancing U.S.-ROK extended deterrence cooperation in an integrated manner,” said a joint statement by Biden and Yoon.

South Korean officials have highlighted the importance of the guidelines in addressing North Korea’s evolving nuclear threats. Deputy National Security Director Kim Tae-hyo stated that joint military exercises would be conducted to implement the guidelines, with specific U.S. nuclear assets committed to the plans. However, experts caution that these steps, while significant, require continuous refinement and testing.

North Korea’s response to the joint guidelines and increased military cooperation between the U.S., South Korea, and Japan has been predictably hostile. In a statement, North Korea’s Defense Ministry accused its rivals of plotting a nuclear attack and vowed to boost its nuclear deterrent readiness. The ministry warned that the U.S. and South Korea would “pay an unimaginably harsh price” for their provocative acts.

In August, North Korea marked the delivery of 250 nuclear-capable missile launchers to frontline military units at a ceremony where Kim renewed his call for a ceaseless expansion of his military’s nuclear program to counter perceived U.S. threats.

Kim has demonstrated an intent to deploy battlefield nuclear weapons along the North’s border with South Korea and authorized his military to respond with preemptive nuclear strikes if it perceives the leadership as under threat.

The launchers were produced by the county’s munitions factories and designed to fire “tactical” ballistic missiles, a term that describes systems capable of delivering lower-yield nuclear weapons.

Adding to the complexity of the situation is the recent defense pact between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. The agreement, which required mutual aid if either country was attacked, represented the strongest connection between North Korea and Russia since the end of the Cold War.

Analysts have suggested that the accord could embolden North Korea to continue its provocative actions. The possibility of Russian assistance in North Korea’s missile development, particularly its MIRV program, has raised concerns.

While no concrete evidence of such assistance has been confirmed, the potential for technological support from Russia could accelerate North Korea’s missile advancements and pose a greater threat to regional and global security.