For all the usual stagecraft, the Republican National Convention that opens on July 15 is different from Donald Trump’s previous nominating affairs.
In 2016 and 2020, Trump’s criminal activities had yet to bring multiple felony convictions. He was the underdog heading into fall and faced criticism from within his own party. Among the list of egregious acts was causing the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans from his greedy mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
This year, in addition to being an adjudicated rapist, Trump will accept the Republican nomination with his party in lockstep behind him and Democrats in turmoil over President Joe Biden’s viability.
There will be the usual convention tasks throughout the four days. Delegates, almost 2,400 of them, must approve a platform and formally designate the presidential ticket: Trump and his yet-to-be-named running mate.
They will hear from both national candidates and a slew of others rallying support for Trump and taking aim at Democrats. The Trump GOP expects a triumphant moment.
“The political environment is not only great for Donald Trump, but it’s really great for Republicans running for Senate, governor, House seats, all the way down,” said Henry Barbour, an influential Republican National Committee member who has sometimes criticized Trump in the past.
ARE THERE ANY DISSENTERS LEFT IN THE TRUMP NATIONAL COMMITTEE?
Trump has buried his opponents and taken over the party. Voters get fundraising mail with “Trump National Committee” stamped above the RNC’s Capitol Hill address. Trump’s closest primary rival, Nikki Haley, will not see the convention stage. Instead, delegates will hear from, among others, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who ended his presidential campaign after the Iowa caucuses and immediately endorsed Trump.
“I don’t think there’s any comparison to his previous campaigns,” said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a Trump ally.
Most importantly, Trump is on offense against President Biden and confident enough that his campaign promised in a convention preview that “President Donald J. Trump will usher in a new golden age for America.”
WHOM WILL TRUMP PICK AS VICE PRESIDENT?
Ever the showman, Trump has strung out his choice of running mate. The most commonly mentioned candidates are North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and Ohio Senator J.D. Vance. Trump mused that he would love to withhold his pick until the convention began — but he admitted that idea frustrates his aides who want to preview the rollout. All three men, along with other contenders Trump has considered, are expected to address delegates at some point.
WILL TRUMP REACH FOR THE MIDDLE OR FOR HIS BASE?
Conventions are mostly about firing up core supporters. But they draw large television and online audiences that include the broader electorate. Trump’s campaign has outlined daily messaging aimed at both audiences, with themes that riff on Trump’s Red Hat motto: “Make America Great Again.”
The theme for Monday, July 15 is economics: “Make America Wealthy Once Again.” Trump has outlined an agenda of sweeping tariffs and ramped-up production of oil and gas, even though it already hit a record under President Biden. He argues that his plans to deport millions of immigrants in the U.S. illegally will bring down inflation, which has fallen from higher levels earlier in Biden’s presidency.
Tuesday, July 16, it’s immigration and crime: “Make America Safe Once Again.” Trump and Republicans believe the border debate is among their strongest issues. They have arranged speeches for the family members of slain people in which immigrants in the U.S. illegally face criminal charges, as part of Trump’s broader attempts to blame crime on border policies.
Wednesday, July 17 is national security day: “Make America Strong Once Again.” Delegates and the viewing audience can expect to hear arguments that President Biden is a “weak” and “failed” commander in chief and head of state. This is the day, typically, that vice presidential nominees address the convention.
Thursday, July 18 will culminate with Trump himself: “Make America Great Once Again.”
WILL TRUMP FOCUS ON PRESIDENT BIDEN AND THE FUTURE OR ON ELECTION LIES?
The takeaway for most observers, regardless of all the careful planning and choreography, will be what Trump himself says in his acceptance address. In 2016 in Cleveland, Trump offered a dark indictment of American life and insisted in an echo of past dictators, “I alone can fix it.”
The populist, White Nationalistic pitch enraptured his radical Christian Conservative backers but did not necessarily help him expand his appeal to the public who, for the most part, did not want to vote for a candidate with a stated mission of ending America’s democracy.
Republicans across the party want Trump to take advantage of President Biden’s struggles by explaining his ideas for a second presidency. That means sidestepping his most incendiary, racist rhetoric. It would also mean not repeating his Big Lie that the 2020 election was fraudulent or spending time complaining about the laundry list of criminal prosecutions against him.
“He needs to avoid the politics of division,” said Barbour.
Of course, that would also mean Trump taking a decidedly un-Trump approach. He has proven unwilling or unable to avoid spiraling into a 20-minute rant about electrocuting sharks.
During his 2020 visit to Milwaukee, Trump spent nearly a half hour talking about flushing toilets. That list of tangental rants came just days before plunging the Federal government into dysfunction over the COVID-19 shutdown.
WILL THE PARTY GO ALONG TRUMP’S WISHES ON ABORTION?
If there is any notable dissent on the floor, it may come over the platform provision stating that abortion policy should be left to state governments. That’s what Trump wants two years after the conservative U.S. Supreme Court majority he helped cement overturned the precedent establishing a federal right to abortion services.
Anti-abortion activists — and Trump’s former vice president Mike Pence, who Trump incited Insurrectionists to hang on the steps of Congress during his January 6 coup attempt — want Republicans to call for federal restrictions on abortion.
There is no question that Trump controls the votes to ratify the proposed platform. A public fight would play into Democrats’ contention that the GOP wants to effectively ban abortion access nationwide — part of their wider argument that a second Trump administration would be extreme on many policy matters.
WILL THE PROTESTERS OUTSIDE MATTER?
Protest groups will not be permitted inside the security zone established around the convention arena by the Secret Service. But they’ll get as close as they can and attract at least some media attention.
Principles First, which describes itself as a nationwide grassroots movement of pro-democracy, anti-Trump conservatives, is holding a rally Wednesday. Speakers include former Republican Party Chairman Michael Steele.
The Democratic National Committee is holding events in Milwaukee as well, promising daily news conferences, counterprogramming, and voter outreach in the Democratic-dominated city. Democrats intend to highlight President Biden’s accomplishments on the economy and juxtapose the president’s advocacy for democracy and international alliances with Trump’s criticism of NATO, praise of authoritarian leaders, and quips about being a dictator on “day one.”
Democratic-aligned groups, including United We Dream Action, the Service Employees International Union and America’s Voice, are going even further, with bilingual mobile billboards around the RNC site urging voters to reject “Trump’s Fascist Agenda.”
